Reclaiming the year-end world No. 1 ranking – Is it really that improbable?

Amongst the 15 players to have held the year-end No. 1 ranking since the ATP adopted a computerized ranking system in 1973, Ivan Lendl remains the only one to successfully reclaim the lost mantle of the world's numero uno when usurped at the top by another player.  With a lead of some 950 points over second placed Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer is poised to become the first player to match Lendl's 1989 feat.  However...

In 1979, Borg and McEnroe became the first players to earn in excess of US$1 million in prize money in one season.

In 1998, Pete Sampras finished as the year-end world No. 1 for a record-breaking sixth straight season, bettering Jimmy Connor's old mark of five between 1974-78.

On November 19, 2001 Lleyton Hewitt became the youngest player to reach the world No. 1 ranking at age 20 years and 8 months.

Yet amongst the 15 players to have held the year-end No. 1 ranking since the ATP adopted a computerized ranking system in 1973, Ivan Lendl remains the only one to successfully reclaim the lost mantle of the world's numero uno when usurped at the top by another player.

With a lead of some 950 points over second placed Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer is poised to become the first player to match Lendl's 1989 feat.

However, there is one more tournament to be played before the season's out.

The player to emerge unbeaten from the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London next week stands to receive a whopping 1,500 points.

A number of possible, yet intriguing, scenarios have been worked out by the ATP:

1. If Nadal is an undefeated champion at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals (winning all-three round-robin matches, a semifinal and final) he will earn the maximum 1,500 points. If that happens, Federer would need to either win all three round-robin matches OR reach the final to beat out Nadal for the year-end No. 1 spot.

2. If Nadal goes 2-1 in round-robin play and wins the title he will earn 1,300 points. If that happens, Federer would need to either win two round-robin matches OR win one round-robin match and reach the final to beat out Nadal for the year-end No. 1 spot.

3. If Nadal goes 3-0 in round-robin play, wins his semi-final but loses the final he will earn 1,000 points. If that happens, Federer would need only to win one round-robin match to beat out Nadal for the year-end No. 1 spot.

But that's not all folks.

To complicate matters further, starting this year, players participating in World Group or World Group playoff ties will earn ATP ranking points. According to www.daviscup.com:

a) Accumulated points for all Davis Cup play over the preceding 52-week period will count as one result and form part of the ATP World Tour 500 category, the best of which count towards a player’s ranking.

b) ATP ranking points are awarded for performances in live rubbers. Points will not be awarded for dead rubbers.

c) Players who miss a round of ties (i.e. not among the four nominated players at the draw) will be awarded points based on the immediately preceding round.(For example, a player who doesn’t play the first round but plays the second round will earn 40 points for each singles match won in that second round).

d) Points will be added after every round of ties and deducted at the same stage the following year.
See ATP Ranking Points as explained on www.daviscup.com for further details.

What is a known fact is that Roger Federer played only two singles rubbers this year and won both in Switzerland's World Group Playoff victory against Italy in September.

Rafael Nadal also played only two singles rubbers this year and won both in Spain's 1st round victory against Serbia in March.

Exactly just how the various scenarios will pan out after factoring in the bonus points from the Davis Cup ties, is anyone's guess.

To be absolutely foolproof safe, however, we really ought to have ATP stats guru Greg Sharko to take a closer look at the numbers behind this story.

Additional Info:

Prize money and South African Airways 2009 ATP Rankings points information for the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, from 22-29 November at The O2 in London.

TOURNAMENT PRIZE MONEY (SINGLES PLAYERS)
Alternate $70,000
*Participation Fee $120,000
Round Robin Win – Per Match Won $120,000
Semi-final Match Winner - $380,000
Final Win $770,000
Undefeated Champion $1,630,000

* Pro-rated on a per match basis:
$70,000 = 1 match
$95,000 = 2 matches
$120,000 = 3 matches